#276 Defending the Global Order

I think that the Russian invasion of Ukraine doesn't threaten Western civilization; it threatens the global order; and its repercussions threaten the ability of humankind as a whole to deal with the main challenges of the 21st century, including climate change, including the rise of disruptive technologies.

I think this is part of the shock, the shock waves around the world ... People realize that if Putin succeeds, if Putin is allowed to win, then this will become the new normal all over the world.

If you want to really see peace in action, don't look in poems; look in state budgets. You look at the budgets of the world in the last few years, it's really amazing, because the average military budget out of total government budget of countries all over the world, on average, is about 6-7% ... Compared to most of history when the majority of the budget of every king and emperor and sultan went to finance the army and the navy and the fortresses, not healthcare and education.

Without trust, both on a national level and on the international level, civilization collapses. Trust is the glue that holds everything together—and trust in institutions.

The military budget of Russia in percentage out of government budget is not 3%, like in the EU; it's not 6%, like the world average. Nobody knows exactly how much it is, because it's secret. The lowest estimates are around 11%. The highest estimates, they range 20, 30, 35%. The truth is probably somewhere in between.

I think if [Vladimir Putin] waited a few more years, just done nothing, just wait a few more years, there is a good chance that Europe and the United States would have self-destructed due to their internal conflicts and culture war. And he is now giving, with his own hands, he has united them, and he's giving them a chance to save themselves.